Many Predict Another Recession by 2020

The increasing tariffs on trade with China has increased the chances of a recession. Photo courtesy of digitaltrends.com

The increasing tariffs on trade with China has increased the chances of a recession. Photo courtesy of digitaltrends.com

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Nathan Wolfe

Staff Writer

Many economists believe there could be another recession in the United States by 2020. There have been many signs of a recession and the trade war with China is only making it worse. Another recession would affect almost everyone in the United States as the last recession cost the country $12.8 trillion and many people lost their jobs.

According to poll results by the National Association for Business Economics, 38% of economists believe there will be another recession in the next couple of years. This is up from 25% in a survey taken in February. This increase is because many believe that the United States might not be able to withstand the trade war with China amid a weakening global outlook. 

Trump has dismissed concerns about a recession but, if one were to happen it is just the cost of a much-needed trade war with China. He stated, “I am doing this whether it’s good or bad for your statement about, ‘Oh, will we fall into a recession for two months?’ The fact is, somebody had to take China on.” The tariffs are expected to increase on October 15, so the stock market could see another volatile month.

Another way to tell if there is a recession coming is the “yield curve.” This refers to the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. When short-term rates become higher than long-term rates, the yield curve becomes “inverted.” Every single recession for the past 60 years has come after one, and in the month of August, the yield curve has become inverted.

If a recession were to happen it would affect almost everyone in America. Many businesses would close which would lead to many people getting laid off from their jobs. During the last recession in 2009, more than 15 million people were unemployed. This is a huge increase because only a few years before in 2006, there were 6.7 million people that were unemployed.

Another recession needs to be avoided at all costs. It would hurt our economy and would take years to recover. If the tariffs continue and rise like they are expected to, it is expected that a recession will occur.